The Lab
Studies from the queue
Field notes from watching the ATF’s NFA approval queue with instruments. Each study is one plain-English finding backed by a chart computed live from community-reported approvals. Together they cover 2026 from start to finish: how the queue split after the $0 stamp, how it drained in July and August, and how it runs today. Numbers move as new approvals are reported, and this is observed community data, not official ATF records.
One chart holds the whole year: the queue split apart under the surge, and has been closing back up since July.
Each dot is one approval. Dotted diagonals mark constant waits — every dot on the 60d line waited exactly 60 days. Showing the 2,500 most recent of 3,998 approvals.
Method. Every reported e-file approval from roughly the last 10 months, plotted by filing date against approval date and colored by lane. Diagonal guides mark constant waits.
Reading it honestly. The shaded strip on the right holds the most recent filings. Most are still waiting, so only their fastest approvals appear yet — the empty space there is pending, not fast.
It isn't one line. It's four, and the gaps between them open and close.
Right now all four lanes run within a day of each other, at 2 to 3 days. At the widest, in Jul 2026, it was 75 days.
shared wait-days axis · same scale across all four lanes · dashed tick = the lane’s slowest month
Method. last 30 days · e-file only, the same window as every headline wait on this site. Each dot is one approval on a shared wait-days axis; the shaded band is the middle 50%, the heavy tick is the median, and the dashed tick is the lane's slowest complete month, for scale. Lanes below 15 approvals are held back.
The wait now runs on business days. Count those, and the day of the week you file stops mattering.
Individual filings cleared in a median of 2 business days, and 98% within five. Filed on a Monday, the median wait was 2 calendar days; filed on a Friday, 4. Trust filings took a median of 2 business days on Form 4 and 2 on Form 1.
Method. individual e-file filings placed 45 to 14 days ago, both forms (2026-09-02 to 2026-10-03), by the day of the week the filing was placed. Business days are Monday to Friday; federal holidays are not removed, so a holiday week reads a day slower. Weekdays with fewer than 10 filings are held back.
Reading it honestly. The window stops two weeks short of today on purpose. The newest filings have only had time to show their fastest approvals, and counting them would make the queue look quicker than it is.
Form 1 spent five months getting slower, then gave most of it back in two.
The Form 1 · Individual median climbed to 69 days by Jun 2026 and has since come down to 3 in Sep 2026.
The Form 1 · Trust median climbed to 83 days by Jul 2026 and has since come down to 3 in Sep 2026.
Method. median wait by approval month · ≥8 approvals/month · e-file only. A monthly rate is quoted only for a lane moving in a straight line; a lane that changed direction gets its two legs described instead.
Reading it honestly. This is the approval-month view — what the ATF cleared each month, the output side of the pipe. It is distinct from the filing-cohort curves in Study 06.
The backlog is gone. Every lane now clears filings from the last few weeks, not the last few months.
Tap or hover a week to see which filing months it cleared.
Method. last 11 complete approval weeks · e-file only. Each bar is one complete approval week, stacked by the month the filing was placed, oldest filing month at the bottom. The figure under each week is the share of its approvals filed within the previous 30 days.
Reading it honestly. The in-progress week is dropped entirely. The most recent complete week is still filling as reports arrive, so its bar will grow.
Each filing month cleared later than the one before it, until April. Every month since has cleared faster.
Method. Each line is one filing-month cohort — the share of its reported approvals cleared by day X. The figure beside each month in the legend is its median wait. Cohorts need at least 25 approvals to appear.
Reading it honestly. Solid lines are finished cohorts: the queue is now clearing filings placed on or after 2026-10-05, and because it works in filing order, a month that ended before that date has few approvals left to come. Dashed lines are still being worked and can only shift right as slower approvals land.
Form 1 used to be approved seven days a week. Since June it keeps weekday hours, like Form 4.
Weekend share of approvals, by month
Share of approvals by weekday
last 60 days · all reported approvals. Saturday and Sunday columns are dashed.
Daily reported approvals
Method. Monthly bars: the share of each complete month's reported approvals that landed on a Saturday or Sunday. Weekday grid: the last 60 days only, so it shows the current rhythm. Reporting is community-sourced, so a batch of reports can smear activity across a few days.
The line is fair: whoever filed first is approved first, almost without exception.
The queue is almost perfectly first-in, first-out. Among filings placed at least 14 days apart, the later filer almost never gets approved first — jumping the line essentially doesn’t happen.
Method. last 180 days · e-file only. For each lane we compare every pair of approvals filed at least 14 days apart and count how often the later filer was approved first. Lanes with fewer than 50 comparable pairs are held back.
Your state doesn't change your wait.
Every state with enough reported approvals lands in a tight cluster — just 2 days separate the fastest and slowest state medians. NFA processing is federal; the state-to-state differences here are noise, not policy.
Method. Form 4 · Individual · e-file · last 180 days · states with ≥15 approvals. Each dot is a state median; the whisker is its middle 50%. The dashed line is the overall median across states.
The Lab · Studies may change without notice · NFA wait times this month → · Glossary →