Briefings
NFA Wait Time Briefings
A regular read on how long NFA approvals are actually taking — what changed recently, which kinds of filings are moving fastest, and how much waits vary from person to person. Built from approval dates reported by people who filed.
View archive →Latest briefing
On Form 1, individuals are clearing faster than trusts — 7 days vs 27 days at the median.
Form 4 individuals are the fastest right now at 4 days. Form 1 trusts are the slowest at 27 days.
Half of Form 1 individuals waited between 3 and 25 days — a quarter came in faster, a quarter slower.
Based on 1,008 approvals reported in the last 90 days.
Approval speeds were unpredictable across the past 4 days. Filers who submitted around the same time saw noticeably different results.
ATF is working through filings submitted about a month ago. That barely moved over the past 4 days.
Approvals were spread widely, and the gap between filing types grew.
Approval speeds swung around week to week, so recent numbers are a rough guide rather than a reliable estimate.
What this means
Inconsistent timing paired with a flat or falling pace usually means something is disrupting processing. Plan with more margin than the typical wait suggests.
Compared with recent days
Wait times have stayed unpredictable for 4 days running.
Highlights
Wait times have been unpredictable for 4 days straight.
ATF is still working on filings from ~1 month ago, roughly where it was.
Waits still vary widely depending on what you filed and how you filed it.
Fewer approvals were reported to us than usual during this period.
unpredictable · 4 days
All the filing types we track have stayed within about a month of each other for 31 days running. Right now it makes little difference which lane you are in.
For 31 days running, at least one kind of filing has had uneven or unpredictable wait times. This is not a one-off rough patch — it keeps recurring.
Form 4 — Trust has been the fastest-moving category for 17 days straight. That advantage looks entrenched.
Outcomes have been splitting apart across multiple kinds of filings for 31 days. This looks systemic rather than isolated.
There are early signs that different kinds of filings are converging on similar wait times.
Every filing type is at roughly the same point — the category you filed under is barely making a difference.
Form 1 — Trust waits are clustered tightly together, while Form 1 — Individual waits are still spread across a wide range.
Waits are unpredictable across every filing type we track.
Longer pieces that dig into a single question in detail, with the full statistics behind it. Published occasionally, when the data supports one.
2026 Report · January to September
The $0-Stamp Year
4,150 approval records. Every lane month by month, what each filing month cost, the two kinds of trust penalty, and a check against ATF.
Inaugural Edition · June 2026
The Two-Queue Regime
2,462 approval records. Form 1 vs Form 4 structural divergence, the February freeze, and right-censoring in live datasets.
Stay Current
Get notified when new reports publish
No fixed schedule — only when the data warrants it.
Briefings are generated automatically from approval dates reported by filers. No editorializing, no AI-written text. Read the methodology →