Recent approvals reflect relatively short pending durations across reported filings.
Form 4·Individual
Median wait5d
Typical range3–8d
Approvals103
Form 1·Individual
Median wait68d
Typical range41–82d
Approvals84
Form 1·Trust
Median wait78d
Typical range73–84d
Approvals81
Form 4·Trust
Median wait31d
Typical range26–35d
Approvals58
Last 30 days by ATF approval date · 326 approvals
Approval Activity Signal
Slight slowdown in approval activity
Monitoring Form 4 and Form 1 recent approvals
Last approval
20h ago
Signal strength
↓ Below baseline
Detection window
127 recent · 1051 prior 76d
3,131 approvals tracked across 47 states
Latest reported approval: today
Cohort Density
Approval distribution by filing week
All types
Filing week
Approvals
Median
Typical range
Active
Jul 6–12, 2026
4
4d
3–4d
4
Jun 29–Jul 5
15
8d
7–9d
15
Jun 22–28
27
5d
4–8d
27
Jun 15–21
28
4d
2–7d
28
Jun 8–14
37
5d
3–6d
32
Jun 1–7
46
7d
5–21d
23
May 25–31
40
8d
6–26d
15
May 18–24
57
8d
4–22d
15
May 11–17
58
13d
7–33d
20
May 4–10
47
12d
5–31d
8
Apr 27–May 3
51
10d
6–26d
8
Apr 20–26
66
14d
6–23d
8
Apr 13–19
86
23d
6–69d
28
Apr 6–12
125
36d
8–78d
41
Mar 30–Apr 5
105
36d
16–73d
35
Mar 23–29
95
66d
29–73d
3
Mar 16–22
97
62d
22–68d
—
Mar 9–15
111
42d
13–65d
—
Mar 2–8
112
36d
7–64d
—
Feb 23–Mar 1
113
25d
4–63d
—
Feb 16–22
130
28d
4–62d
—
Feb 9–15
138
57d
13–61d
—
Feb 2–8
93
23d
8–28d
—
Jan 26–Feb 1
124
27d
15–46d
—
Jan 19–25
172
31d
17–53d
—
Jan 12–18
250
36d
20–48d
—
Median = half waited less, half more. Typical range = the middle 50% of filers (25th–75th percentile). Active = approved in the last 30 days.
Cohort Activity
Recent approvals by filing cohort
Hover a bar for cohort detail
Jan
Sep
Dec
Mar
Jun
Frontier
Active (30d)
Historical
Frontier: May 2026 (2mo ago)4 active cohorts
Filing Cohorts
Approval activity is progressing across Jun 2026 through May 2026 filing cohorts.
PeriodActivity#Wait
Jul 2026
105d
Jun 2026
1341–33d
May 2026
1851–46d
Apr 2026
2571–77d
Mar 2026
1931–70d
Feb 2026
2951–65d
Jan 2026
6451–75d
Dec 2025
285d
Nov 2025
628d
Oct 2025
742–33d
Sep 2025
4Insufficient sample
Jun 2025
1Insufficient sample
Feb 2025
1Insufficient sample
Jan 2025
106d
Active (last 30 days)
Historical
4 active cohorts
Approval signal distributed across 5 active cohort windows. Broad-front advancement detected — no dominant compression zone.
Form 4 Trust frontier trails Individual by 1 month. Persistent pathway separation — trust gap remains observable.
QueueBroadening—Activity is distributed across 4 active filing cohorts, with the frontier at April 2026.
Cohort Activity Map
Two queue surfaces — shared scale, shared timeline, synchronized hover
All↔All
Frontier:May 2026
regime: volatile · trajectory: slowing
All
context ↑
↔
All
FewerMore approvals— shared scale
HoverSyncFrontier
Queue Intelligence
90-day window
Operational FrontierThe oldest filing months still getting approvals — how far back the ATF is currently working.
Oldest filing months still seeing meaningful recent approvals
Form 4 · IndividualJun 2026
Form 4 · TrustMay 2026
Form 1 · IndividualApr 2026
Form 1 · TrustApr 2026
Active CohortsHow many different filing months saw at least one approval in the last 30 days.
Filing months with recent approvals in the last 30 days
Form 44
Form 14
Combined5
90-Day Wait Distribution
Typical range · median · by filing type
Form 4 · Individual
380 approvals
6dmedianThe middle wait — half were faster, half slower (used instead of an average so one extreme case doesn't skew it).·4–9d typical rangeWhere the middle 50% of waits fell — most people landed in this range.
Form 1 · Individual
343 approvals
63dmedianThe middle wait — half were faster, half slower (used instead of an average so one extreme case doesn't skew it).
·
59–68d typical rangeWhere the middle 50% of waits fell — most people landed in this range.
Form 4 · Trust
249 approvals
28dmedianThe middle wait — half were faster, half slower (used instead of an average so one extreme case doesn't skew it).·21–34d typical rangeWhere the middle 50% of waits fell — most people landed in this range.
Form 1 · Trust
224 approvals
69dmedianThe middle wait — half were faster, half slower (used instead of an average so one extreme case doesn't skew it).·65–76d typical rangeWhere the middle 50% of waits fell — most people landed in this range.