Approval activity is progressing across Aug 2026 through Jul 2026 filing cohorts.
PeriodActivity#Wait
Aug 2026
1405d
Jul 2026
1931–41d
Jun 2026
2061–50d
May 2026
1921–99d
Apr 2026
2591–89d
Mar 2026
1941–70d
Feb 2026
2961–65d
Jan 2026
6501–75d
Dec 2025
285d
Nov 2025
628d
Oct 2025
742–33d
Sep 2025
4Insufficient sample
Jun 2025
1Insufficient sample
Feb 2025
1Insufficient sample
Jan 2025
106d
Active (last 30 days)
Historical
4 active cohorts
Form 1 · Trust waits changed direction — rose from 52 to 83 days between Mar 2026 and Jul 2026, then fell to 30 in Aug 2026. No single monthly rate covers both legs.
Form 4 · Trust waits changed direction — rose from 27 to 31 days between Mar 2026 and Jul 2026, then fell to 22 in Aug 2026. No single monthly rate covers both legs.
Movement pressure concentrated near August 2026. Localized activation — cohort compression has not yet dissipated.
QueueBroadening—Activity is distributed across 4 active filing cohorts, with the frontier at August 2026.
Cohort Activity Map
Two queue surfaces — shared scale, shared timeline, synchronized hover
All↔All
Frontier:Jul 2026
regime: volatile · trajectory: slowing
All
context ↑
↔
All
FewerMore approvals— shared scale
HoverSyncFrontier
Queue Intelligence
90-day window
Operational FrontierThe oldest filing months still getting approvals — how far back the ATF is currently working.
Oldest filing months still seeing meaningful recent approvals
Form 4 · IndividualAug 2026
Form 4 · TrustJul 2026
Form 1 · IndividualJul 2026
Form 1 · TrustMay 2026
Active CohortsHow many different filing months saw at least one approval in the last 30 days.
Filing months with recent approvals in the last 30 days
Form 44
Form 15
Combined5
90-Day Wait Distribution
Typical range · median · by filing type
Form 1 · Individual
516 approvals
29dmedianThe middle wait — half were faster, half slower (used instead of an average so one extreme case doesn't skew it).·6–62d typical rangeThe middle half of waits — the fastest 25% and the slowest 25% are left out. Also called the IQR, or interquartile range.
Form 4 · Individual
353 approvals
5dmedianThe middle wait — half were faster, half slower (used instead of an average so one extreme case doesn't skew it).
·
3–8d typical rangeThe middle half of waits — the fastest 25% and the slowest 25% are left out. Also called the IQR, or interquartile range.
Form 1 · Trust
264 approvals
71dmedianThe middle wait — half were faster, half slower (used instead of an average so one extreme case doesn't skew it).·31–82d typical rangeThe middle half of waits — the fastest 25% and the slowest 25% are left out. Also called the IQR, or interquartile range.
Form 4 · Trust
255 approvals
27dmedianThe middle wait — half were faster, half slower (used instead of an average so one extreme case doesn't skew it).·15–34d typical rangeThe middle half of waits — the fastest 25% and the slowest 25% are left out. Also called the IQR, or interquartile range.
Typical range = the middle half of waits. It leaves out the fastest 25% and the slowest 25%.
Recent approvals reflect relatively short pending durations across reported filings.
Form 1·Individual
Median wait29d
Typical range6–62d
Approvals516
Form 4·Individual
Median wait5d
Typical range3–8d
Approvals353
Form 1·Trust
Median wait71d
Typical range31–82d
Approvals264
Form 4·Trust
Median wait27d
Typical range15–34d
Approvals255
Last 90 days by ATF approval date · 1,388 approvals
Approval Activity Signal
Slight slowdown in approval activity
Monitoring Form 4 and Form 1 recent approvals
Last approval
20h ago
Signal strength
↓ Below baseline
Detection window
151 recent · 1226 prior 76d
Approval distribution by filing week
All types
Filing week
Approvals
Median
Typical range
Active
Aug 31–Sep 6, 2026
7
1d
1–2d
7
Aug 24–30
49
3d
2–4d
49
Aug 17–23
54
3d
2–4d
54
Aug 10–16
87
5d
3–8d
87
Aug 3–9
79
5d
4–8d
79
Jul 27–Aug 2
80
6d
4–9d
62
Jul 20–26
86
11d
5–15d
36
Jul 13–19
70
16d
13–24d
30
Jul 6–12
81
19d
8–23d
10
Jun 29–Jul 5
70
20d
12–27d
9
Jun 22–28
68
22d
6–32d
7
Jun 15–21
68
32d
5–38d
7
Jun 8–14
95
34d
6–38d
4
Jun 1–7
73
22d
7–46d
5
May 25–31
68
35d
7–53d
3
May 18–24
77
15d
5–52d
7
May 11–17
89
33d
9–65d
4
May 4–10
71
32d
7–73d
1
Apr 27–May 3
85
37d
9–77d
—
Apr 20–26
90
21d
8–79d
—
Apr 13–19
88
26d
6–72d
—
Apr 6–12
126
36d
8–78d
—
Mar 30–Apr 5
105
36d
16–73d
—
Mar 23–29
95
66d
29–73d
—
Mar 16–22
100
63d
23–68d
—
Mar 9–15
112
44d
14–65d
—
Median = half waited less, half more. Typical range = the middle 50% of filers (25th–75th percentile). Active = approved in the last 30 days.
4,125 approvals tracked across 47 states
Latest reported approval: today
NFA Tracker — ATF Approval Wait Times | NFA Watch
Right now most Form 4 individual e-files clear in about 5 days; Form 1 filings are running about 29 days. Enter your own filing below to see where you stand.